Twenty-two months will pass before Americans cast their votes on Nov. 6th, 2012, but few who saw Barack Obamas State-of-the-Union address on Jan. 25 doubted that the Presidential campaign had begun. The Presidents stirring speech contrasted with the tepid Republican responses delivered by Reps. Paul Ryan and Michele Bachmann and established the ideological battle lines for the next election.
Obama delivered a positive message: America is recovering from the worst recession most of us have ever known. We are poised for progress and if we work together the US can have another Sputnik moment, create jobs and heal our society, because we do big things. In contrast Ryan and Bachmann trumpeted alarm. They warned that America is on the road to bankruptcy and to avoid our day of reckoning we must drastically reduce the size of government and cut taxes.
Obama portrayed government as a force for good, an agency to harness Americas energy and innovation and create jobs. In contrast, Ryan and Bachmann described government as an obstacle that needs to be removed so the free market can create jobs. Thematically, Obama pushed reform, responsibility, and innovation, while Ryan and Bachmann called for a renewed commitment to limited government. The President made specific proposals for job creation, education, infrastructure development, tax code reform, and debt reduction. Reps. Ryan and Bachmann had one focus: repeal of healthcare reform.
Thus the 2012 presidential campaign opened with clear statements of the polarized perspectives. For Democrats the Great Recession was produced by failed conservative policies, but the actions of the Obama administration and the Democratically controlled 211th Congress solved most of our economic woes, and the remaining challenges can be met by thoughtful government action. The GOP claims the Obama administration caused the Great Recession and the Presidents actions increased the Federal bureaucracy and the national debt. For Republicans the only solution is a drastic reduction in the size of government in order to unshackle our economy.
Most Americans are concerned about both high unemployment and the national debt. How the contrasting State-of-the-Union speeches were received depends upon which problem was seen as needing the most attention. In the most recent New York Times/CBS News poll respondents overwhelmingly (43%) believed that Congress should focus on job creation. In contrast, only 14% saw the federal budget deficit as Congress top priority. President Obama got this message and the vast majority of his State-of-the-Union remarks concerned job creation. Ryan and Bachmann didnt get the message and, therefore, focused on the deficit.
Obama won the opening round of the 2012 Presidential campaign. And, by discussing most of the problems that vex Americans, the President established the context for a series of Congressional battles that will likely take the same general form: the White House will propose a program to tackle a particular problem; the Republican-controlled House of Representatives will refuse to take his proposal seriously and, instead, pass draconian budget cuts; and these will stall in the Democratically controlled Senate.
For example, in his State-of-the-Union address the President proposed to create jobs by an investment in innovation: a level of research and development we havent seen since the height of the Space Race in biomedical research, information technology, and especially clean energy technology. Obama continued, to help pay for it, Im asking Congress to eliminate the billions in taxpayer dollars we currently give to oil companies. Even though Americans in general liked this idea, Obamas proposal likely will not get a hearing in the House and, instead, Republicans will try to slash the Federal budget, to magically create jobs by bleeding the body politic.
The next major battle between the President and Republican ideologues will occur in March. This past December, Congress failed to pass a yearlong budget and, therefore, federal agencies were funded by a continuing resolution that expires on March 4. Republicans will use the necessity for another continuing resolution as an opportunity to savagely reduce funds for many Federal agencies. Extremists, such as Reps. Ryan and Bachmann, will threaten to shut down the federal government unless their demands are met.
Over the next 22 months Americans should expect total political gridlock. Whether this ultimately benefits Democrats or Republicans on Nov. 6, 2012, depends upon how effectively the President uses the bully pulpit. The good news about the Presidents State-of-the-Union address is that Obama appeared to have found his Mojo. Hell need it to fight battle after battle with Republican obstructionists and address Americas most pressing problems.
Bob Burnett is a Berkeley writer and a retired Silicon Valley executive. Email firstname.lastname@example.org.
From The Progressive Populist, March 1, 2011
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