Dispatches

MEDICARE, SOCIAL SECURITY FUNDS ARE DOING BETTER, BUT MUST BE PROTECTED. Trustee reports show Social Security is projected to be fully funded until 2035, a year later than previously thought, while Medicare is expected to be fully funded until 2036, five years beyond the earlier projection, but advocacy groups say the reports are proof the programs must be protected from Republican attempts to scale them back, Jessica Corbett reported at CommonDreams.org (5/6).

Former President Donald Trump, the presumptive Republican nominee to face President Joe Biden in November, “proposed cutting Social Security and Medicare every year he was in office, he’s said repeatedly he would cut them, his allies openly plan to target them, and just [the weekend before the report] he dismissed them as bribes,” noted James Singer, a spokesperson for Biden’s campaign.

Richard Fiesta, executive director of the Alliance for Retired Americans, said May 6 that “current and future American retirees should feel confident about both Medicare and Social Security, which [are] stronger due to the robust economy under President Biden. But the future of these earned benefit programs depends on who is elected this fall—both as president and to Congress.”

Fiesta highlighted that Biden’s latest budget “calls for strengthening” the programs whereas Trump recently said ‘there is a lot you can do ... in terms of cutting’ them’ and the Republican Study Committee (RSC), which includes around 80% of House Republicans, stands ready to make cuts as well.”

Nancy Altman, president of Social Security Works, similarly declared that “today’s report shows that our Social Security system is benefiting from the Biden economy. Due to robust job growth, low unemployment, and rising wages, more people than ever are contributing to Social Security and earning its needed protections ...

“That said, Congress should take action sooner rather than later to ensure that Social Security can pay full benefits for generations to come, along with expanding Social Security’s modest benefits,” she argued, noting various plans from Democrats in Congress that “are paid for by requiring millionaires and billionaires to contribute more of their fair share.”

Max Richtman, president and CEO of the National Committee to Preserve Social Security & Medicare, also asserted that “Congress must act NOW to strengthen Social Security for the 67 million Americans who depend on it. We cannot afford to wait to take action until the trust fund is mere months from insolvency, as Congress did in 1983.”

“We strongly support revenue-side solutions that would bring more money into the trust fund by demanding that the wealthy pay their fair share. Rep. John Larson (D-Conn.) has offered legislation that would do just that—by maintaining the current payroll wage cap (currently set at $168,600), but subjecting wages $400,000 and above to payroll taxes, as well—and dedicating some of high earners’ investment income to Social Security. Rep. Larson’s bill also would provide seniors with a much-needed benefit boost.”

Larson was among the lawmakers who responded to the Social Security report by demanding urgent action. The Democrat also called out his Republican colleagues for pushing cuts and trying to “ram their dangerous plan through an undemocratic and unaccountable so-called ‘fiscal commission,’” which critics have dubbed a “death panel.”

“The Social Security 2100 Act is co-sponsored by nearly 200 House Democrats and would improve benefits across the board while extending solvency until 2066, while Donald Trump and House Republicans continue their calls to slash Americans’ hard-earned benefits!” Larson said. “By contrast, President Joe Biden and Democrats are working to strengthen Social Security, not cut it.”

Co-sponsors of Larson’s bill include Congressman Brendan Boyle (D-Pa.), ranking member of the House Budget Committee.

US BILLIONAIRES PAY LOWER TAX RATE THAN WORKING CLASS FOR FIRST TIME. US billionaires paid a lower effective tax rate—23%—than working-class Americans for the first time in the nation’s history, a data point that sparked a new flurry of calls for bold levies on the ultra-rich. The bottom half paid 24%.

Economist Gabriel Zucman’s analysis, published in the New York Times (5/3) with the headline “It’s Time to Tax the Billionaires,” notes that billionaires pay so little in taxes relative to their vast fortunes because they “live off their wealth”—mostly in the form of stock holdings—rather than wages and salaries.

Stock gains aren’t taxed in the US until the underlying asset is sold, leaving billionaires like Amazon founder Jeff Bezos and Tesla CEO Elon Musk—a pair frequently competing to be the single richest man on the planet—with very little taxable income.

“But they can still make eye-popping purchases by borrowing against their assets,” Zucman noted. “Mr. Musk, for example, used his shares in Tesla as collateral to rustle up around $13 billion in tax-free loans to put toward his acquisition of Twitter.”

To begin reversing the decades-long trend of surging inequality that has weakened democratic institutions and undermined critical programs such as Social Security, Zucman made the case for a minimum tax on billionaires in the US and around the world.

“The idea that billionaires should pay a minimum amount of income tax is not a radical idea,” Zucman wrote. “What is radical is continuing to allow the wealthiest people in the world to pay a smaller percentage in income tax than nearly everybody else. In liberal democracies, a wave of political sentiment is building, focused on rooting out the inequality that corrodes societies. A coordinated minimum tax on the super-rich will not fix capitalism. But it is a necessary first step.”

Responding to those who claim a minimum tax would be impractical because “wealth is difficult to value,” Zucman wrote that “this fear is overblown.”

“According to my research, about 60% of U.S. billionaires’ wealth is in stocks of publicly traded companies,” the economist observed. “The rest is mostly ownership stakes in private businesses, which can be assigned a monetary value by looking at how the market values similar firms.”

Since 2018, the final year examined in Zucman’s analysis, the wealth of global billionaires has continued to explode while worker pay has been largely stagnant. As of last month, there were a record 2,781 billionaires worldwide with combined assets of $14.2 trillion.

The US has more billionaires than any other country, with 813 individuals worth a combined $5.7 trillion, Jake Johnson noted at CommonDreams.org (5/3).

“The ultra-wealthy are paying less in taxes than the bottom half of income earners. That’s absurd!” Rakeen Mabud, chief economist at the Groundwork Collaborative, wrote in response to Zucman’s analysis. “We’ve got to raise taxes on the wealthy and large corporations. Enough with the wealth hoarding. It’s past time for us to take back what’s ours.”

US Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.), chair of the Senate Budget Committee, called the figures assembled by Zucman “disgraceful” and said that “not only can we fix this, we can make Social Security and Medicare safe and sound as far as the eye can see.”

ECONOMY MATCHES LATE 1960S LOW UNEMPLOYMENT STREAK. The US economy had its 27th consecutive month below 4% unemployment in April, as the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported unemployment at 3.9%. This matches the streak from November 1967 to January 1970, often viewed as one of the most prosperous stretches in US history, Dean Baker of the Center for Economic Policy and Research noted (5/3). It was a period when jobs were plentiful, real wages were rising rapidly, and prosperity was broadly shared as wages rose at all points along the wage distribution.

“We are not currently seeing as robust real wage growth as in the late 1960s boom. Productivity has not been growing as rapidly, and we are still recovering from the disruptions created by the pandemic. But the benefits of growth have been broadly shared with workers with the bottom of the distribution seeing the largest wage gains,” Baker noted.

Bureau of Labor Statistics survey showed a gain of 175,000 jobs. This is well below the average of 234,000 jobs over the last 12 months.

After three quarters of extraordinary productivity growth in 2023, growth in the first quarter came in at just 0.3%. However, this still left year-over-year growth at 2.9%, far above the 1.6% average in the five years before the pandemic, and even further above the 1.2% rate if we go back a decade. For this reason, even though the first quarter productivity number weakens the case, there is still some cause to believe we are on a faster productivity growth path.

Baker said it was another very solid jobs report. “The Fed should be absolutely ecstatic over this jobs report. The slower job growth is at a pace that most economists would view as sustainable. The recent pace of wage growth is certainly not inflationary and the data in this report are consistent with a more rapid productivity growth story.

“In fact, if we extrapolate from the last three months, there is cause to be worried that wage growth is too slow. Also, the decline in the share of unemployment due to quits suggests a reduction in workers’ confidence about their labor market prospects. At this point, there is more basis for concern on the weakness side than an excessive strength story.”

POLL FINDS RISE OF FASCISM AND EXTREMISM IS VOTERS’ TOP CONCERN. A recent Marist poll for NPR and PBS NewsHour surveyed Americans’ biggest concerns for the country’s future, finding that “the rise of fascism and extremism” topped the list, at 31% of US adults, Kerry Eleveld noted at DailyKos (5/6).

The partisan breakdown, as usual, was illuminating, with a plurality of Democrats and independents choosing the rise of fascism and extremism, at 47% and 32% respectively, as their primary concern.

The issue dominated with Democrats—nothing else even broke 20%. But among independents, “a lack of values” came in second at 24% with “becoming weak as a nation” just behind at 23%.

Republicans’ top two concerns were “a lack of values,” at 36%, and “becoming weak as a nation,” at 30%, while the rise of fascism was a distant third at 15%.

Notably, 35% of those who cited rising fascism and extremism as their top concern said they are “definitely voting in November’s election.” Meanwhile, a lack of values and the nation becoming weak stayed static among “definite” voters at 24% and 21%, respectively.

Simply put, the rise of fascism and extremism is the most concerning to Americans, particularly those who are “definite” voters, and the feeling is most pronounced among potential Democratic voters (i.e. Democrats and independents). On the other hand, it is not a primary motivation for Republican voters.

Additionally, the survey’s findings suggest that abortion could be a more powerful issue than some analysts suggest because of GOP abortion bans sweeping the South. These bans serve as a real-life example of the loss of freedoms and autonomy associated with fascists and autocratic regimes.

While attendees of this year’s Conservative Political Action Conference are outright welcoming “the end of democracy,” the GOP’s quashing of abortion care in an entire region of the country serves as a tangible reminder of what an end to democracy means.

Among analysts, the economy and immigration are often touted as the two main policy issues driving the election, with abortion lagging, polled separately, or even excluded from the issue polling.

That was also the case in the 2022 midterms, when Democrats were supposed to be swept away by a red wave but instead wildly outperformed expectations.

In October 2022, a Civiqs poll showed exactly why analysts misread the issues that would dominate the election. While 58% of voters overall chose the “economy/jobs/inflation” as their top issue, the partisan breakdown of issues showed that 52% of Democrats chose abortion as their No. 1 issue while 43% said “fair elections/democracy” was their No. 2 issue.

These two issues proved to be decisive and incredibly motivating among Democratic voters’ and some independents who turned out to beat back the red wave, Eleveld noted.

The latest Marist polling suggests that anyone who underestimates them in this election does so at their own peril, Eleveld noted.

BIDEN AND TRUMP SUPPORTERS ARE SHARPLY DIVIDED BY THE MEDIA THEY CONSUME. Supporters of President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump are sharply divided across all sorts of lines, including the sources they rely on to get their news, data from an NBC News poll shows, Ben Kamisar reported at NBCNews.com (4/29).

Biden is the clear choice of voters who consume newspapers and national network news, while Trump does best among voters who don’t follow political news at all.

The stark differences help highlight the strategies both candidates are using as they seek another term in the White House — and shed some light on why the presidential race appears relatively stable.

The poll looked at various forms of traditional media (newspapers, network news and cable news), as well as digital media (social media, digital websites and YouTube/Google). Among registered voters, 54% described themselves as primarily traditional news consumers, while 40% described themselves as primarily digital consumers.

Biden holds an 11-point lead among traditional news consumers in a head-to-head presidential ballot test, with 52% support among that group to Trump’s 41%. But it’s basically a jump ball among digital media consumers, with Trump at 47% and Biden at 44%.

And Trump has a major lead among those who don’t follow political news — 53% back him, and 27% back Biden.

“It’s almost comic. If you’re one of the remaining Americans who say you read a newspaper to get news, you are voting for Biden by 49 points,” said Republican pollster Bill McInturff, who conducted the poll alongside Democratic pollster Jeff Horwitt.

The trends also extend to other questions in the poll. There’s a significant difference in how traditional news consumers view Biden, while digital news consumers are far more in line with registered voters overall.

More primarily traditional news consumers have positive views of Biden (48%) than negative ones (44%). Among primarily digital news consumers, 35% view Biden positively, and 54% view him negatively. Vice President Kamala Harris’ positive ratings show a similar divide, while Trump is viewed similarly by news consumers of both stripes.

And although the sample size is small, those who don’t follow political news feel more positively about Trump and independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and more negatively about Biden.

Trump’s lead among those not following political news caught Horwitt’s eye amid Trump’s trial on charges related to allegations he paid hush money to quash news of an alleged affair from coming out during the heat of his 2016 campaign and as he faces legal jeopardy in other cases that consistently make news.

“These are voters who have tuned out information, by and large, and they know who they are supporting, and they aren’t moving,” Horwitt said.

“That’s why it’s hard to move this race based on actual news. They aren’t seeing it, and they don’t care,” he continued.

The NBC News poll of 1,000 registered voters nationwide — 891 contacted via cellphone — was conducted April 12-16, and it has a margin of error of +/-3.1 percentage points.

BIDEN CAMPAIGN SURPRISING TARGET FOR NEW ABORTION AD: LATINO MEN. The Biden campaign is leaning into abortion as an issue that can cut against Donald Trump with a critical constituency: Latino voters, Kerry Eleveld noted at DailyKos (5/3).

On May 3, the campaign announced a new battleground state ad blitz targeting Latino men that will pour $1 million into Latino media in May alone, according to Reuters. The 30-second spot, which will air in English and Spanish, features Marine Corps vet and Nevada carpenter Cesar Carreon, talking about abortion as an attack on freedom.

“I know what tough is,” Carreon says. “And a guy like Donald Trump that attacks women, takes away their freedom, and brags about it? That’s not tough.”

“If he wants to take any more freedoms away from my three daughters, he’ll have to come through me first,” Carreon says.

Carreon closes by saying that he’s with President Joe Biden, “ ’cause he’ll give my daughters their freedom back.”

Polling released in April by Axios/Ipsos with Telemundo found Latinos preferred Biden over Trump on abortion, 30% to 21%.

The Democratic advantage on abortion was even more pronounced when comparing parties, with Latinos who favored the Democratic Party more than doubling those who preferred the Republican Party, 33% to 14%.

The Biden campaign also appears to be using abortion to talk more broadly about the issue of freedom, a word Carreon used three times in the ad.

In its email to reporters, the Biden campaign framed the ad as targeting “Trump’s attacks on reproductive freedom.”

In the Axios/Ipsos survey, Biden also tested better than Trump on being good for the health of American democracy, 28% to 23%. But he lagged Trump on immigration (22% to 29%), crime and public safety (20% to 31%) and especially the economy (20% to 42%).

Arizona and Nevada are home to the largest population of Latino residents of the five most hotly contested swing states, at 31% and 29%, respectively. The Biden campaign has made an early push for Latinos in both states, launching its “Latinos con Biden-Harris” outreach program in mid-March. The campaign also released ads touting Biden’s signature achievement of capping insulin at $35 for seniors along with his support for a woman’s right to choose.

TRUMP FUMES AS RFK JR’S ANTI-VAXX VIEWS LAND WITH MAGA VOTERS. Independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is swamping conservative media platforms, which has Donald Trump and his campaign team on edge, according to *Politico*.

Kennedy is reportedly frequenting pro-Trump outlets such as Fox News and Newsmax, along with right-wing podcasts hosted by the likes of Ben Shapiro and Glenn Beck. His message on those programs is tailor-made for voters who dislike or even despise President Joe Biden and Democrats, including “the young listeners of bro podcasters and conservative-coded YouTubers that skew anti-’woke,’” writes Politico, as noted by Kerry Eleveld at DailyKos (5/2).

Kennedy initially launched his presidential bid as a Democrat. But his anti-establishment messaging and embrace of baseless conspiracy theories, particularly regarding vaccines, has helped fuel his celebrity on the right while repelling those on the left and other fact-based voters.

Several recent national polls have shown RFK Jr. drawing more voters away from Trump than Biden, but his candidacy’s impact on the 2024 election outcome is far from settled.

For instance, one recent battleground poll conducted by Emerson College for The Hill found that RFK Jr. siphoned votes away from Biden in five swing states (Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin) while drawing evenly from Biden and Trump in two others (Arizona and Michigan).

Michigan State politics professor Corwin Smidt underscored the fluidity of Kennedy’s influence in the critical swing state.

“Given the status of politics in Michigan right now, I would say he’s probably more damaging to Trump,” Smidt told the BBC. “But it’s a very uncertain situation.”

Accordingly, both campaigns are making an effort to push their Kennedy-curious voters away from him. A group of Kennedys recently endorsed Biden en masse and followed up by cutting a glowing ad for him.

And Trump seems increasingly agitated by Kennedy, railing against him on social media.

On the heels of several polls last week that showed Kennedy’s candidacy helping Biden, Trump called RFK Jr. “a Democratic ‘Plant’” designed to get Biden reelected.

“A Vote for Junior’ would essentially be a WASTED PROTEST VOTE,” Trump said in the post, calling Kennedy “Anti-Gun,” an “Extreme Environmentalist,” a “Big Time Taxer,” and an “Open Border Advocate,” among other things.

Trump’s social media rants may not rise to the level of an official campaign strategy, but they certainly demonstrate a sense of urgency.

In essence, Kennedy’s effect on the race is volatile, with both campaigns wondering how he’ll impact the contest and, importantly, in which states.

The question for both Biden and Trump becomes: How do we make Kennedy a bigger drag on the other guy than on me?

One Pennsylvania focus group suggested that Democratic swing voters who favor abortion access started second-guessing their support for Kennedy when they began questioning his abortion stance. While Kennedy’s campaign says he rejects a national abortion ban, the candidate told an NBC reporter on camera last year that he supported a ban after 12 weeks of pregnancy.

A new Monmouth University poll offers another data point for Biden allies to consider. The survey found Republicans warmed to Kennedy once they learned more about his embrace of medical conspiracy theories. Specifically, Kennedy has linked autism to vaccines and said COVID was targeted at people of certain races.

In the Monmouth poll, 5% of respondents said they were “definite” Kennedy voters while another 13% said they were “probable” Kennedy voters.

Overall, 10% of Republicans fell into those combined categories, while 15% of Democrats did.

But when voters were informed of Kennedy’s beliefs on vaccines and COVID, his potential support among Republicans increased by 8 points, with 18% saying they would either definitely or probably vote for him. Meanwhile, Kennedy’s support among Democrats fell by 5 points, to a combined 10% definitely/probably. Kennedy’s support among independent voters remained constant at roughly 24%.

The findings give the Biden campaign and his allies another avenue to potentially turn RFK Jr. into a bigger threat against Trump. RFK Jr. is the original anti-vaxxer, and it’s worth recalling that Trump got booed several times on the campaign trail in 2020 when he suggested his MAGA supporters should get vaccinated.

From The Progressive Populist, June 1, 2024

Populist.com