Five Reasons There Will Not be a Recession in 2023 in the United States

By JOEL D. JOSEPH

No matter how hard the Federal Reserve tries to cause a recession, it will fail to do so. The Feds efforts to curb inflation are counterproductive. There are five strong factors that will fight the Feds efforts to slow the economy down. These five factors will keep the US economy humming along and keep the recession away.

1. Infrastructure Spending

The White House pushed out $185 billion in funding under a $1 trillion bipartisan infrastructure law passed last year with that same amount or more to follow in 2023. This spending is for new roads, bridges, railroads and other infrastructure projects will create five million new jobs.

2. Gas Prices are Down

According to the American Automobile Association, the average price of a gallon of gasoline in the United States has fallen to $3.18, more than 10 cents a gallon less than the price recorded at the same point last year. Consumers now have extra money to spend on other products, and will do so giving the economy another boost.

3. Drug Costs are Going Way Down

The Affordable Insulin Now Act, led by Senator Raphael Warnock (D-GA), will require Medicare plans and private group or individual plans to cap seniors’ out-of-pocket costs for insulin at $35 per month to lower costs for insulin users. Many diabetics were paying exorbitantly from their own pockets for insulin. According to the American Diabetes Association, people with type 1 diabetes need, on average, two to three vials per month. For the uninsured, and those with poor coverage, a month’s worth of insulin can cost, on average, $1,000 or more. Seven million Americans require daily injections of insulin. This totals $84 billion per year. Most of that total will not be spent by consumers because of the Affordable Insulin Act. Consumers will use the savings to buy other products, pay bills and save money.

In addition to the massive insulin savings, The Inflation Reduction Act makes improvements to Medicare that will expand benefits and lower drug costs.

Because of this new law, Medicare will be able to negotiate directly with drug manufacturers to lower the price of some of the costliest single-source brand-name Medicare Part B and Part D drugs. This means that people with Medicare will pay a lower cost-sharing for these drugs because their cost-sharing will be based on the new Medicare negotiated price. This means billions of dollars from consumers who will save on prescription costs will spent on other consumer products.

4. Liquified Natural Gas

Because the Russian-Ukraine War, Europe is dependent on the United States for natural gas supplies. According to Reuters, the United States will remain the primary supplier of liquified natural gas (LNG) to Europe for at least 2023. This will likely generate even greater revenue for US exporters after a record 2022, which totaled $35 billion through September, compared to $8.3 billion over the same period in 2021, US Energy Information Administration (EIA) data shows. The U.S. is projected to sell at least $50 billion worth of LNG to Europe in 2023.

Six out of 10 largest LNG terminals in construction or proposed are located in the United States. One of the largest is the Driftwood LNG, a liquefied natural gas (LNG) production and export terminal on the west bank of the Calcasieu River, south of Lake Charles, Louisiana. Another large facility is the Rio Grande LNG project, is located in Brownsville, Texas. This one project is estimated to cost more than $15 billion. All six of these American LNG projects will create hundreds of thousands of jobs in construction, maintenance and operation.

The United States looks set to remain Europe’s top LNG seller in 2023 as US LNG exporters have greater volumes of LNG available for spot market purchases than other major exporters

5. Strong Job Market

Last, but not least, the job market in the United States remains exceptionally strong. According to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, in November,2022, the country added 263,000 to payrolls. That’s above the 200,000 payroll increase that economists that Bloomberg surveyed had forecasted — and means more than anticipated robust hiring.

ADP Research announced, “Private employers added 235,000 jobs in December and annual pay was up 7.3% year-over-year. Job resurgence was seen in the last two months of 2022 led by consumer-facing service industries. Hiring was strong across small and medium establishments while large establishments saw a drop in employment of 151,000 jobs.”

The November and December increases are good news for workers who also got another raise. Wage growth stayed strong in December, with average hourly earnings rising 7.3% year-over-year — above the 4.6% that economists Bloomberg surveyed had predicted.

For all five of these reasons, the Feds efforts to slow the economy down will not work. A recession is not on the horizon in 2023.

Joel Joseph is an attorney, an economist and chairman of the Made in the USA Foundation, a non-profit organization dedicated to promoting American-made products. Email joeld joseph@gmail.com. Phone 310 MADE-USA.

From The Progressive Populist, February 15, 2023


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