Your Independent Journal from the Heartland
“If Congress and the President were to reinstate a military draft, the Selective Service System would conduct a National Draft Lottery to determine the order in which young men would be drafted.” — United States Selective Service System
It was June 30, 1973, when 24-year-old Dwight Elliot Stone unknowingly made history. A plumber’s apprentice living in Sacramento, California, Stone was the last American mandated to report for military duty. Which he did.
In the 52 years since Stone’s conscription, there has been little public or political appetite for a new mandatory draft. Interest peaked in 2004 in response to the specious Iraq War; but Congress roundly rejected a proposal from the late Rep. Charles Rangel (D-NY) requiring most males 18-25 to perform two years of military or civilian service.
Yet in the wake of Donald Trump’s careless war on Iran, what was a nonstarter option post-Dwight Stone cannot be ruled out so early in the campaign. Trump megaphone and secretary of defense Pete Hegseth’s previous “no boots-on-the-ground” rants have softened of late.
As with his dangerously mercurial boss, Hegseth cannot be trusted in front of cameras. This is the guy that can’t hold a press conference without conflating Iran’s conventional weapons stockpile with it’s nuclear storage sites. But should troops actually be deployed, all bets are off as to the number needed to secure a distant, unstable country in distant, unstable region.
At least two positions are emerging on a new draft. The first looks at the history and variables, and dismisses the possibility out of hand. U.S. advantages in technology and preparedness far outweigh that of Iran - even if propped up by a constellation of supporting entities. Current personnel levels are up to any task, and opinions to the contrary are purely alarmist.
The second looks at the same history and variables, and finds reason to worry. Trump has doubled down on American military prowess in starry-eyed belief a critical mass of Iranians will seize the moment, and form a Western-style government.
Equally naive is the assumption Russia and China won’t leverage the war to their own interests, and engage in political, economic and military proxy wars. It’s utterly impossible to give realistic estimates of personnel necessary under the circumstances. A draft may not be eminent, yet neither is it out of the question.
To date only Congress has the authority to reinstate a draft. But it should be clear by now Trump will bypass or steamroll any inconvenient legality the courts will allow. Congress could eek out a “no” response to conscription, but Trump hates nothing more than a loser. If given the option to cut his losses or impose a draft, the realists will win hands down.
And everybody else will lose.
Don Rollins is a Unitarian Universalist minister in Port Townsend, Wash.
Email donaldlrollins@gmail.com.
