Your Independent Journal from the Heartland
The state of the Middle East, which includes players like Iran, Israel, and the United States, is a cause of concern for those working for a more rational international order.
The US and its ally, Israel, are rightfully worried about Iran acquiring a nuclear weapon. A fragile ceasefire between Israel and Iran ended a 12-day war in June that began with Israeli airstrikes, followed by US strikes on three Iranian nuclear sites, as addressed by writer Parisa Hafezi in his story “Reeling from War with Israel, Iran at Crossroads Between Defiance and Diplomacy.” Israel said the strikes were necessary to keep Iran from developing a nuclear weapon.
Three Iranian insiders said the political establishment now views negotiations with the US — aimed at resolving a decades-long dispute over its nuclear program— as the only way to avoid further escalation, according to Hafezi. The strikes on Iran, which included killings of top Revolutionary Guard commanders and nuclear scientists, occurred just a day before a planned sixth round of talks with the US. Iran accused the US of betraying the diplomatic path, while hardline lawmakers blamed those in their own country who advocated diplomacy with the US.
Iran denies seeking nuclear weapons, but it has enriched uranium to levels that have no civilian application, has also obstructed international inspectors from checking its nuclear facilities, and massively expanded its ballistic missile capabilities. President Donald Trump said Israel and the US will continue to retaliate if Iran goes down the dangerous path it has been on. Hafezi addressed a possible future scenario: “Renewed United Nations sanctions under the so-called ‘snapback’ mechanism, pushed by three European powers, loom as a further threat if Tehran refuses to return to negotiations or if no verifiable deal to curb its nuclear activity results. Tehran has threatened to quit the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. But insiders say this is a pressure tactic, not a realistic plan, as exiting the NPT would telegraph an Iranian race for nuclear bombs and invite US and Israeli intervention.”
While the Iranian leadership speaks with one voice, the populace speaks with another. There is a sense of weariness over war amongst many Iranian citizens, said Hafezi. In addition, international isolation is taking a toll. The oil-based economy, already hobbled by sanctions and state mismanagement, is under worsening strain. Hafezi painted a picture of the current state of the country in his story: “daily blackouts afflict cities around the country of 87 million people, forcing many businesses to cut back. Reservoirs have receded to record lows, prompting warnings from the government of a looming “national water emergency.” Despite these feelings, many Iranians back their own country in the war against Israel and the US, and large-scale demonstrations against the government have not broken out, even though moderate voices in the media have voiced moderate opinions.
One aspect of Iranian relations that Hafezi doesn’t cover enough in his story is the role people, or we should say people power, could play in the future. As he said, there is a faction in Iran that’s tired of war, and it has been reported in other places that many young Iranians are tired of authoritarian theocratic rule. America and Israel currently have authoritarian governments, but there’s opposition to those governments in both countries. President Trump’s popularity has declined significantly since taking office in the early part of this year, and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s actions are a point of discussion on the world stage, and the discussion isn’t positive.
What happens when the anti-authoritarian and pro-democratic opposition wins in the US, Israel, and Iran? Perhaps governments that don’t draw their support from a fear of “the other,” a hallmark of authoritarianism. As stated in this story, hardliners in Iran didn’t favor diplomacy with the US, US authoritarians favor an isolationist foreign policy, and Israel’s authoritarian government doesn’t want to recognize Palestinian nationalism in any way. If authoritarianism in those three countries comes to an end, perhaps governments that prioritize international law, stability, and peace will prevail, ushering in a new era of nuclear arms control in the Middle East.
Jason Sibert of St. Louis, Mo., is the Lead Writer for the Peace Economy Project.
Email jasonsibert@hotmail.com.
